- Unelected elites do not correctly perceive public opinion: their beliefs about where the public stands on policy are off by an average of 14 percentage points.
- However, unlike elected elites, who tend to believe their constituents are more conservative than they actually are, unelected elites tend to believe the public thinks like they do, whether that’s liberal or conservative.
- These findings raise interesting questions regarding the disconnect between government officials and the public they are supposed to represent.
Do Elites Know What We Want?
A recent interesting finding in political science research is that elected officials—despite all the data they have at their fingertips—tend to believe their constituents have more conservative beliefs than they actually do.
But what about unelected officials? That is the question Alexander C. Furnas of Northwestern University and Timothy M. LaPira of James Madison University seek to answer in their recent article in the American Journal of Political Science. They find unelected officials misperceive the public’s policy preferences, too—although not in the same way as elected officials.
Read on to learn more about Furnas’s and LaPira’s findings and what you can do to help correct the misperceptions of public officials.
Have you ever wondered how well our political leaders understand what we, the public, really want? This is a crucial question in democratic societies. Let’s break down some recent research that delves into this topic, focusing on the United States.
Understanding Democratic Responsiveness
Democratic responsiveness is about how well political leaders’ actions match what the public wants. Earlier studies (like Achen, 1978; Miller & Stokes, 1963) believed that elected officials usually knew and acted according to their constituents’ wishes. But newer research (like Enns & Wlezien, 2011; Hacker & Pierson, 2010) shows a gap between what people want and the policies implemented. This is sometimes called the “democratic deficit.”
Recent studies have begun to explore whether our leaders might not really understand public opinion. This could explain why policies don’t always match public preferences. Research by scholars like Broockman and Skovron (2018) reveals that elected representatives often have a skewed view of their constituents’ opinions, usually tilting more conservative.
But most political elites–like bureaucrats, media pundits, and policy advocates–are not elected.
This is who Furnas and LaPira are interested in studying:
“For our project, we define unelected political elites as (1) those public servants who hold authoritative roles in government that contribute to policy agenda setting, formulation, implementation, and oversight; and, (2) those outside government whose occupations motivate them to engage, influence, collaborate, monitor, report on, or otherwise routinely interact with those inside government as a significant part of their job. This political elite population includes thousands of unelected bureaucrats, party activists, judges, media pundits, campaign consultants, lobbyists, think tankers, commissioned military officers, lawyers, scientists, and business and nongovernmental organization leaders.”
Data and Methods
This was a pretty straightforward study. Furnas and LaPira used two surveys: one for political elites, and one for regular voters.
Elite Survey
- When and Who: Conducted from November 19, 2020, to January 11, 2021, targeting political elites and public servants.
- Source: Participants were chosen from the Leadership Connect database.
- Numbers: 3,743 respondents participated, a response rate of 5.0%. (Note: A 5% response rate for a survey might seem low, but it’s actually quite typical in social science research. As long as the researchers make the necessary adjustments to their data, this response rate is considered acceptable.)
- Adjustments: Responses were adjusted for factors like gender, job variety, and professional experience.
- Focus: The study focused on unelected elites, so elected officials and congressional staffers were excluded.
Voter Survey
- When: Conducted on December 16-17, 2020.
- By Whom: Data for Progress, a national think tank.
- Participants: 1,098 likely voters.
- Representation: Adjusted to reflect the U.S. voter population in terms of age, gender, education, race, and voting history.
What They Asked
- Policy Opinions: Both groups were asked their opinions on various policy proposals.
- Response Format: They used a five-point scale ranging from strong support to strong opposition.
- Randomization: Policy items were presented in random order to avoid bias.
- Elite Perceptions: Elites were specifically asked to estimate the percentage of the public supporting each policy.
The difference between the elite’s estimate and the actual public support (from the voter survey) was calculated. This showed how much elites misjudged public opinion. The researchers acknowledged that surveys aren’t perfect, but are a common tool in politics for gauging public opinion.
Results
The study demonstrates a significant gap between actual public opinion and political elites’ perceptions. On average, elites are off by about 13.7 percentage points when estimating public opinion. Both Democratic and Republican elites have misconceptions about public opinion on various policy issues, such as carbon tax, healthcare, and immigration policies.
Misperceptions are not uniformly biased in a single ideological direction.
- For instance, while Republican elites underestimate the popularity of a wealth tax, Democratic elites estimate it more accurately.
- Similarly, Democratic elites overestimate public support for policies like a path to citizenship, whereas Republicans are more accurate in their assessment.
The research uncovers a general false consensus effect among elites, showing that political elites’ misperceptions are influenced by their own policy preferences. Elites who strongly support or oppose a policy tend to overestimate public support or opposition, respectively. The false consensus effect is observed consistently across different political and professional subgroups, such as lawyers, lobbyists, and government officials.
What can you do?
The findings challenge the conventional belief that sophisticated political elites are generally well-informed and make reasonable decisions based on accurate perceptions of public opinion. This, obviously, is important in democratic governance. The misperception among political elites could lead to policies that do not align with actual public preferences, impacting the quality of democratic representation.
What can be done about this? The authors argue that further investigation is needed to understand the impact of elites’ misperceptions on their policy behavior, the stability of these misperceptions over time, and the extent to which certain types of expertise might mitigate misperception.
Here’s a list of things you do to help bridge the gap:
- Engage in Direct Communication with Your Representatives: Regularly contact your elected officials to express your views on policy issues. Direct communication ensures that representatives have firsthand knowledge of their constituents’ opinions, countering any misconceptions derived from elite circles.
- Participate in Public Opinion Polls: Actively participate in reputable public opinion surveys and polls. Increased participation in polls can provide a more accurate reflection of public sentiment, helping to correct elites’ misperceptions.
- Support Transparent and Accessible Political Research: Advocate for and support research initiatives that aim to make political data more accessible and transparent. Transparency in political research can demystify public opinion trends, providing elites with clear and accessible data.
- Promote Media Literacy and Critical Thinking: Engage in and promote educational programs that emphasize media literacy and critical analysis of information. Well-informed citizens can more effectively scrutinize and challenge elites’ statements and policies, fostering a more informed public discourse.
- Encourage Diverse Representation in Politics: Support diverse candidates who represent a wide range of perspectives and backgrounds. Diverse representation ensures that a variety of views are considered in policy-making, reducing the likelihood of elite echo chambers.
- Utilize Social Media Platforms Effectively: Use social media to voice opinions on policy issues and engage in meaningful discussions. Social media can amplify public opinion, making it more visible to political elites and the broader community.
- Participate in Grassroots Movements and Advocacy Groups: Join or support grassroots organizations that align with your views and actively advocate for policy changes. Grassroots movements can mobilize public opinion and exert pressure on political elites, making them more aware of the public’s actual stance on various issues.
By taking these actions, you can play a significant role in ensuring your voice is heard and accurately represented, thereby addressing the disconnect between elite understanding and public opinion.
What do you think can be done to ensure that unelected officials better understand and represent public desires? How much weight do you think public opinion should have in the decision-making process of unelected officials? Share your ideas and suggestions in the comments.
